A brief forecast of what’s coming shortly. Quarterly options expire on the 25th of March. We will see the direction of the markets on 23–24 March.
The amount of #bitcoins in exchanges is reaching multi-year lows, and the amount of #stablecoins is also impressive. The amount of money printed is hard to comprehend. Huge investment avenues are closing up for investment by American investors: Russia, China. Everything is clear about Russia, and the conflict with China is just the beginning. The big companies are not leaving China, but they are no longer increasing their investments: https://www.barrons.com/articles/u-s-firms-in-china-arent-leaving-theyre-just-not-investing-more-according-to-this-survey-51646752612 More conflicts are brewing. American politicians are publicly urging people not to invest in China: https://www.politico.com/news/2022/02/19/china-investments-economy-us-congress-00008745 The Chinese financial market itself is on the brink.
The Evergrande story may soon be over? https://youtu.be/MXLHZUKO9Po The giant’s shares were halted from trading again today https://www.channelnewsasia.com/business/china-property-giant-evergrande-suspends-share-trading-again-2576536
While gold may be the first choice for investors, there are no more sure-fire routes to big money (?). Real estate? Hasn’t anyone who wanted to buy it yet? Investing in equity funds, the SP500, and other popular markets is an uncertain and rather risky choice in the short term. All this is because of commodity prices and supply disruptions. Musk himself acknowledges this.
And #Elon himself is already raising concerns among politicians today. https://www.foxbusiness.com/politics/elon-musk-business-ties-china-create-unease-washington
This only confirms that the pressure on American money is there. How long can this continue? One loss-making quarter is already coming to an end. To keep the big money going, you need other money. The end of March is a very good date to get cryptocurrencies in shape. Especially cryptomarket. The shock phase is over, the next FED rate hike is in almost 7 weeks (May 4). It is difficult to expect major shocks, except maybe the expansion of the war to other countries. Nobody knows how it will turn out, well, probably only uncles with billions of money know more.
#Bitcoin is now very close to the “Bitcoin season” index. If 75% of the top 50 coins outperform bitcoin in the last season (90 days), it is called #altcoin season. Today, the index is 27. To declare a “bitcoin season” you need an index at 25. https://www.blockchaincenter.net/en/altcoin-season-index/
I wouldn’t rule out a panic spread on the 25th of March to adjust the price.
This may sound very optimistic to some, but there are more or less logical arguments for it: my tentative guess is that we will see Bitcoin at over 50k in April.
p.s. This is just a prediction, nobody knows what will happen. Financial decisions should not be made from this forecast. Everything, in reality, can happen the other way around.